1. We have zombie banks.
2. There is considerable regulatory uncertainty in banking and finance.
3. There is a negative wealth effect from lower home and asset prices.
4. There is a big sectoral shift out of real estate, luxury goods, and debt-financed consumption.
5. Some of the automakers are finally meeting their end, or would meet their end without government aid.
6. Fear and uncertainty are high, in part because they should be high and in part because Bush and Paulson spooked everyone.
7. International factors are strongly negative.
8. There is a decline in aggregate demand, resulting from some mix of 1-7.
I have two simple points, First, a large fiscal stimulus addresses factor #8 but fares poorly in alleviating the other problems. Of course it may give a band-aid for #5 or #6 and you can tell other stories but we are in a multi-factor depression.
Second, forecasting will prove very difficult. These factors interacted with each other in a unique manner on the way down and they may well interact in an unpredictable manner on the way back up, whenever that comes. Just for a start, who has a good model of #1, #2, or #6? Right now we’re seeing a lot of good faith efforts to develop forecasts, but I say don’t believe any of them, whether they support your point of view or not.
So I’m watching a movie from 1966 called The Ugly Dachsund. This lady marries this guy who has a Great Dane, and she has 4 Dachsunds. She’s complaining that the Great Dane is a wrecking ball on wheels, and then you hear a male voice yell, “Ryan! Ryan! Help!” It then cuts to this Asian guy with a goofy duckbilled hat, hanging on a tree limb, and another Asian guy laying in the flower bed.
What I don’t understand is the stereotype of Asians unable to say the letter L, which is terribly incorrect. Asians can’t say their Rs! LOL These Asians in this movie are Japanese… and I had a friend named Sayuri (Japanese also) in my communications class. Whenever she would ask our fellow classmate, Ryan, a question, she would say, “Lion, can you help me with this?”
With that being said, if you don’t believe me, go find someone fresh off the boat and ask them to say railroad.
Have a good weekend y’all!
There aren’t too many things about Starbucks that I like.. personally, I think the coffee and teas are disgusting. The coffee is always burnt. The mixed concoctions are always too sweet with syrup stuck at the bottom… So tonight, I decided to visit the Starbucks on Southpark and Newhope: the only Starbucks in my part of Orange County that isn’t overcrowded or loud, to study. I tried this milk tea thing called London Fog and it wasn’t so bad! It was like a Chai latte with less of a spice kick and no aftertaste. I thought it was absolutely devine! Starbucks redeemed themselves!
Yesterday, Jon and I ventured out to Famima! for the first time. After hearing all of those really annoying advertisements on the radio commericials for this convenience store, I just had to check it out. [ Damn advertising execs got me to go! ] This place is located on the corner of Warner Avenue and Magnolia… I walk in, it’s well lit.. I’m trying to find all of these things that would make it stand out from a 7-11. There wasn’t much. Everything is pretty much the same, but they sell Japanese sodas, food and snacks… but NO ICEE MACHINE.
I was rather disappointed… and to make up for the trip, I bought a bottle of Ramune soda (there’s an accented e, but I don’t remember how to type that out). We drive home, and I take off the cap… realizing that there is a glass marble coming between myself and the soda. How on earth am I supposed to get to the soda? I look at the plastic cap that i took off, and it had instructions, and you have to pop the glass out with your hand using this thing it came with. I follow the instructions, and it was by far the most fun I had trying to get to a 6 ounces of soda.
It’s new year’s eve, and I am sitting on a wet patio chair waiting for the new year to ring in.
In retrospect. 2008 has been great: some great things, some really shitty things. Let’s make a list!
1. This day last year was my first date with James, and we are sitting next to each other as we speak. Its been a roller coaster, but I love that mofo – even after 4 breakups and him being a total asshole to me when he is manic. The one thing I can take away from this relationship is that I am in it because I love him and I want this. I’ve never been in a relationship that I’ve wanted 100%. More importantly, I’ve never been in a relationship where it wasn’t always about me. Even with the momentary rockiness, I love what I have and everything I’ve learned from this relationship.
2. I started and I work for one of the greatest managers I’ve ever had, and I love that I’m working with competent people who have the same desire to work hard. It helps that they pay me way better than LandAmerica Default.
2. I’ve seen Gus consistently for the whole year. He is my best friend and I don’t know what life could be like if I didn’t steal half his gay.
4. Nacho is the best thing that could possibly happen to me. I saved him from dying, and I learned recently, I will probably do so for the rest of his life. He’s diabetic and if I don’t care for him, he’ll die. I love that something truly needs me.
Happy new years!
<3 lea
December has been nothing but extremely hectic for me. I personally already HATE Christmas and holiday music, but I keep this to myself. I’m not a huge Grinch that needs to rain on everyone’s parade. However, everyone seems to find this need to remind me that I shouldn’t be a Grinch, and feel the holiday spirit. Eff that!
Where to start? I hate being in a crowded mall trying to find gifts. I hate the long lines. I hate having my feet trampled on by toddlers and strollers. I hate that everyone is in my personal bubble, breathing MY air. I hate that there are only 10 Christmas songs, all dating circa 1952 or earlier. I hate that everything is red and green… I hate it all!
To add fuel to the fire, something always happens to me on Christmas eve. This year, on my way to work, I back out of my parking space only to bump some ladies SUV. There is no damage on my car, but 2005 Toyota Highlander has this huge, caved-in bumper. She’s screaming in Vietnamese to her husband on the cell phone, and they devise this evil scheme to get a lawyer involved and everything else… not realizing, I understand that disgustingly-horrendous sounding language fluently.
Then, after calling the insurance company, I drive to my last day of work with LandAmerica Default. I put in my notice a week prior, and quite honestly, I’m glad I left that cestpool of ignorant and incompetent staff members that hold absolutely no accountability for their work. I get there… and the FedEx guy comes, but my final paycheck is no where to be found. I call HR – this snippy lady named Allison answers the phone. She tells me that they JUST mailed my check that day, and I should receive it by Friday. WTF!
I am a stickler about employment law, especially with the fiasco with Wachovia, and them delaying my final check for over a month! I told Allison that my final check with all of my overtime and PTO was to be in my possession on my final day. I then quote verbatim the Calfornia Labor Code to her,
202. (a) If an employee not having a written contract for a
definite period quits his or her employment, his or her wages shall
become due and payable not later than 72 hours thereafter, unless the
employee has given 72 hours previous notice of his or her intention
to quit, in which case the employee is entitled to his or her wages
at the time of quitting. Notwithstanding any other provision of law,
an employee who quits without providing a 72-hour notice shall be
entitled to receive payment by mail if he or she so requests and
designates a mailing address. The date of the mailing shall
constitute the date of payment for purposes of the requirement to
provide payment within 72 hours of the notice of quitting.
The last time I checked, there were 168 hours in a week, not less than 72!! Allison has the audacity to tell me that I’m pulling all of this information out of my ass, then tells me,
I’m well aware of the laws in Calfornia, and LandAmerica has done everything within their power to be compliant with the law.
Argh! Then I receive my check Friday, and it’s short 13 hours of overtime. They did not calculate overtime from 12/13 to 12/24. I call my former boss, and of course, no answer there… but in accordance to Labor Code 203 – I am entitled to a full day’s wage until I receive all monies owed to me. I know that the dipshits at LandAmerica will not be able to figure this one out on their own, so I’m filing a claim with the labor board. Stupid morons!
On a brighter note, I had a wonderful time with James and his family for the holiday. It was pretty typical, Brady Bunch-esque gathering at his brother’s house with lots and lots of food. James also got me some really cool kicks and a very cute tee
The only downside is, I’m not flat-chested like the girl in the photo. So my monster only has upper teeth
Anyhow, <3 it.
I rescued this fattie from being eat alive from a feed store. His previous owner didn’t want him anymore, so instead of surrending him to a rescue, he was going to be a giant albino boa constrictors dinner.
He is still very nervous, but he loves his new gigantic cage I built for him, and he loves all the treats and toys I buy him. He was living in a wire bottom cage the size of a shoe box and he was being force fed (he’s about 5 pounds, he should only be 2-3!).
I always told myself, I wouldn’t be one of those annoying pet parents, but I am! I like to dress Nacho up, and he really likes his shark outfit. He tries to put it on when he’s not wearing it. He’s the greatest thing that has ever happened to me, and I love him very much!
Anyhow, more Nacho stories and pictures to come. I promise
I told myself, 2008 is going to be my year. I’m going to make changes that positively effect my life. It took me until late October, but I’m finally doing it – and for the first time in a very long time, I am very happy.
Why? There’s an app so I can blog directly from my phone. How freaking sweet!
I was concerned that the most historical date of my lifetime would be Sept. 11, 2001 – the date that World changed: mass paranoia regarding safety, thousands of Americans voting to lose rights for the sake of safety, the legalization of racial profiling, a nation quickly reverting back to its discriminatory ways.
Then Nov. 4th, 2008 – Dem. Illinois Senator, Barack Obama, became 44th President United States of America. He is the first half African-American president of our nation. Tomorrow, he will be prepping his move to the Oval Office, and for the next four years, our country will see if he will actually live up to the many promises he made. Will he bring the change we can believe in?
Will Pres. Obama really close special interest corporate loopholes?
“Cut Pork Barrel Spending: Obama introduced and passed bipartisan legislation that would require more disclosure and transparency for special-interest earmarks. Obama and Biden believe that spending that cannot withstand public scrutiny cannot be justified. Obama and Biden will slash earmarks to no greater than year 1994 levels and ensure all spending decisions are open to the public.”
Why do I pose this question? It’s pretty apparent for Obama to raise the money that he raised is well over the soft money limitations set in place during the Clinton Administration (If you don’t know what I’m talking about, just google soft money, Clinton). Well, of the $600 million plus dollars Obama campaigners managed to raise, only 25 percent of those donations were under $200 – as reported by the Washington Post.
The rest of his donations did in fact come from large corporations and special interest groups. I know many of you are wondering, How can that be true? Obama said he didn’t accept any monies from such groups. The loophole lies in the McCain-Feingold Act. Soft money donations exceeding $2300 can be accepted as long as the monies are shared between the candidate, the party committee and the state committee. If that will actually happen, you can never tell until the IRS does an audit. Read more about this here. What is even more unsettling is that McCain’s contributions are all being reviewed, but none of Obama’s.
Don’t get me wrong, I believe Obama has the great potential as the President of the United States – but I don’t believe he will be as bi-partisan as he said he will be. Politicians will always play the political field with special interest groups.
Mr. President, I hope you don’t disappoint.
So, I went to the gym after hanging out with James.
I walk into the locker room, getting dressed, and I hear a man’s voice! I totally thought maybe I walked into men’s room, but nope it was a tranny!
She was in full garb, bright fuschia dress with matching heels, poorly stuffed DD bra… it was nuts. Then I remembered her from Wells Fargo, and she used to asked us where to get cute shoes in bigger sizes, and I recommended Zappos.com.
Anyhow, she was talking to other women in the locker room about her reassignment surgery, and how she is so happy and blessed that she is truly a woman now.
Hooray for her!
Night!